What caught my eye this week.
I often tell friends that, when judged purely by cost–benefit thinking, my stock picking has been an inefficient use of time. I enjoy active investing — the research, the decision-making, the puzzle — but that doesn’t mean it is the quickest path to greater wealth.
I hashed this out years ago with The Accumulator in a public debate. My view is that I invest actively because it’s stimulating. He argued a different case. Both views have merit depending on your priorities: maximizing returns, minimizing effort, or simply enjoying the process.
By my measurements I’ve outperformed some 100% equity benchmarks over the medium to long term after unitizing my portfolio (see how I unitised). I don’t make explicit risk adjustments in that comparison, so results can look better or worse depending on the period you pick.
2020 has been an extraordinary year for investors: almost everything I held has performed well. That’s rare, and luck has played a large role. It has cut both ways — I suffered setbacks in late 2018 and early 2019 and spent a long stretch trying to recover. Investing is a series of swings and roundabouts.
The practical point I press to friends is that small annual edges — say an extra 1%, 5% or even 10% — only start to look compelling once you account for alternative ways to earn more money, such as focusing on your career and boosting your salary. For many people, improving income or entrepreneurship will outperform the incremental gains from trying to capture a little alpha in the market (tips on raising pay).
I began with a modest mid five‑figure pot of savings less than twenty years ago and I’ve never been among the highest earners in my cohort. Compound interest needs time — the slow rolling snowball metaphor exists for a reason. Had I channelled more energy into monetising the blog or a higher‑paid career route, the financial outcome might differ. But I wouldn’t have had the same satisfaction or the learning that came from active investing.
The irony of alpha
Nick Maggiulli tackled the value of alpha in a clear, data-driven way in a recent post. His central question is stark: how many people have consistently earned net alpha for multiple decades? His conservative answer is only a few hundred throughout history — and identifying those rare winners in advance is nearly impossible.
How many people have earned alpha (net of fees) consistently for multiple decades?
Conservatively, I would say there have been a couple hundred throughout history.
Being one of those people (or trying to select them ahead of time) is near impossible.
More importantly, how much will that alpha change your financial life even if you do happen to acquire it?
For a little bit of annual alpha, the answer is very little.
For example, let’s assume that the market will return 4% a year (after-inflation) going forward and you can earn 1% above this (net of fees) over the next 10 years. How much more money would you have 10 years from now?
About 10% more.
That example underlines the trade-off: a persistent, small annual edge compounds over time, but it takes decades to matter materially — and during those decades you could be investing time in other high‑value activities like career development, creating a business, or writing that novel you always imagined.
The irrelevance of alpha
My friends have generally concluded I’ve wasted time obsessing over markets. I lived frugally into my 40s and didn’t buy flashy cars or immediate luxuries. They didn’t see dramatic lifestyle changes from my investing efforts. That’s unsurprising: sensible compounding of modest wealth often looks boring in the short term.
I’m open about mistakes and bad calls, partly as a superstitious grounding ritual and partly because errors are the best teachers. I emphasise what went wrong because it’s useful to readers and to myself.
Despite the scepticism, I don’t regret chasing alpha. The journey shaped my career and led to this blog, which has proved a meaningful contribution. Closely tending my nest egg has meant I’ve added more savings over time and avoided catastrophic errors that could have set me back further.
“It is the time you have wasted for your rose that makes your rose so important.”
– The Little Prince
Have a great weekend.
From Monevator
Freetrade: How to build your portfolio – Monevator
From the archive-ator: Six reasons small cap shares can supercharge your returns – Monevator
News
Note: Some links point to Google search results. On desktop you can often read articles that would otherwise be behind a paywall. Try privacy/incognito mode to avoid cookies. If you read a source regularly, consider subscribing.1
Inheritance tax receipts fall for first time in a decade due to £1m own home limit – ThisIsMoney
House prices bounced back in July but beware a ‘false dawn’, says Nationwide – BBC
Cut in stamp duty has only really benefited London, says Zoopla – Guardian
US economy plunges at a titanic 32.9% annualized rate in second-quarter – Market Watch
Universal Credit requires £8bn overhaul, says cross-party report – Guardian
The role of gold; a less than perfect inflation hedge – Advisor Perspectives
More on gold: Sad Old Man Rocks making new high – The Reformed Broker
Products and services
Will superfunds come to the rescue of UK pensions? [Search result] – FT
Savers warned not to be fooled by very short-term teaser rates of 1.45% – ThisIsMoney
Car finance commission to be banned. How much will you save? – Which
Sign-up to Freetrade via my link and we can both get a free share worth between £3 and £200 – Freetrade
Argos to stop printing catalogue after almost 50 years – Guardian
F&C flags 50th year of rising dividends after flat but furious first-half – CityWire
Active Non-Transparent ETFs: What are they good for? [US but relevant] – Morningstar
Homes with curve appeal [Gallery] – Guardian
Comment and opinion
Avoiding the ugly scramble – Morgan Housel
How to sell a house – Finumus
Be aware the ‘I love me’ effect – Klement on Investing
The permanent portfolio is on a roll – The Irrelevant Investor
The 4% budget: Spending flexibility is more important than withdrawal rate – Vanguard blog
How much should you spend on an engagement ring? – A Wealth of Common Sense
Isaac Newton and the perils of the financial South Sea – Physics Today
A billionaire created a perfect experiment by erasing $34m in student debt – Bloomberg
Is ESG 2 a return factor [Nerdy, research] – Research Affiliates
Holidays in the sun are not a human right, people – Simple Living in Somerset
Naughty corner: Active antics
Stranger things: Evaluating the value/growth divergence – Verdad
Smithson IT closes in on £2bn: A deep dive – IT Investor
Why famed Wall Street veteran Paul Tudor Jones got into Bitcoin – Institutional Investor
A deep dive into the seasonality factor – Dual Momentum
Cullen Roche interviewed by The Investor’s Podcast [Podcast] – Pragmatic Capitalism
Coronavirus corner
Half a year of nonstop coverage and many people still misread Covid-19 statistics — particularly the (small) risk of dying young — which fuels misplaced fears and poor policy responses – Advisor Perspectives
R number may be > 1 in parts of England; possible exponential spread for the first time since May – Guardian
Visiting people at home banned in parts of Northern England – BBC
Boris Johnson postpones wider easing of lockdown measures in England – CNBC
The global struggle to produce enough disinfectant wipes to meet demand – Slate
Kindle book bargains
Influence by Robert B. Cialdini – £0.99 on Kindle
How to Own the World: A Plain English Guide to Thinking Globally and Investing Wisely by Andrew Craig – £0.99 on Kindle
I Will Teach You To Be Rich by Ramit Sethi – £0.99 on Kindle
Super Thinking by Gabriel Weinberg and Lauren McCann – £0.99 on Kindle
Off our beat
Regulating technology [Deep dive] – Benedict Evans
How digital adverts subsidize the worst of the Web – Wired
What changes [financially and otherwise] in the first year of marriage – New York Times
Thinking for oneself – Farnham Street
And finally…
“The absolute fundamental skill that underpins your success is your ability to spend less than you earn. This is surprisingly difficult for a great many people, but without this you’ve got literally nothing.”
– Pete Matthew, The Meaningful Money Handbook
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