Bitcoin Halving 2024: Date, Countdown and What to Expect

Sometime in the next few days—or perhaps within hours—the “miners” who create new bitcoins by solving complex mathematical problems will see their payouts cut by 50%. This scheduled reduction, known as a halving, will immediately halve the rate at which new bitcoin enters circulation. The event has many potential consequences: it could influence the cryptocurrency’s price, reshape mining businesses and affect energy consumption. As always in the volatile crypto space, outcomes are uncertain. Here’s a concise guide to what the halving means and what to watch for.

What is “bitcoin halving”?

Bitcoin halving is a built-in mechanism that takes place roughly every four years. Bitcoin miners run specialized, high-powered computers to verify transactions and secure the network; when they successfully validate a block, they receive a fixed bitcoin reward. Halving cuts that reward in half, which slows the flow of newly mined coins into the market.

Scarcity is central to bitcoin’s design: the protocol caps the total supply at 21 million coins. More than 19.5 million bitcoins have already been mined, leaving fewer than 1.5 million remaining to be generated. If demand stays steady or grows while new supply slows, the price could appreciate. Some proponents argue this scarcity helps bitcoin act as an inflation hedge, but experts emphasize that future price moves are never guaranteed.

The best online brokers, ranked and compared

Read now

How often does bitcoin halving occur?

Bitcoin’s software triggers a halving every 210,000 blocks produced on the blockchain. Because block times vary, this is not tied to a calendar date, but it generally happens about once every four years. Current block estimates place the next halving in the coming days, with many trackers suggesting it could happen late Friday or early Saturday.

Will halving affect bitcoin’s price?

The short answer: possibly—but not certainly. After each of bitcoin’s three prior halvings, the near-term price behavior was mixed, while the asset tended to be substantially higher about a year later. That pattern does not guarantee future results, and a sample of three events is too small to draw firm conclusions.

“I don’t know how significant we can say halving is just yet,” said Adam Morgan McCarthy, a research analyst at Kaiko. “The sample size of three (previous halvings) isn’t big enough to say ‘It’s going to go up 500% again,’ or something.”

For context, at the May 2020 halving, bitcoin traded near USD $8,602 according to CoinMarketCap and climbed close to USD $56,705 a year later. Prices also rose substantially in the years following the 2016 and 2012 halvings. Analysts caution that other factors—macroeconomic conditions, investor sentiment and new financial products—helped drive those gains.

When is the next bitcoin halving?

This halving arrives after another strong year for bitcoin. As of Thursday afternoon, CoinMarketCap listed bitcoin around $63,500, down from an all-time high near $73,750 last month but roughly double the price from a year ago.

One major driver of recent demand has been the approval of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. earlier this year. Bitwise reported that spot bitcoin ETFs attracted $12.1 billion in inflows during the first quarter. Bitwise senior research analyst Ryan Rasmussen says persistent ETF demand combined with the supply reduction caused by halving could push prices higher.

“We would expect the price of Bitcoin to have a strong performance over the next 12 months,” Rasmussen said, adding that while some forecasts are as high as $400,000, a more common range among analysts is $100,000 to $175,000. Other institutions counsel caution: JPMorgan analysts noted in a research note that post-halving gains might already be priced in, and they see signs of overbought conditions in futures markets.

Tools

MoneySense’s ETF Screener Tool

use tool

What about bitcoin miners?

Halving presents an immediate challenge to mining firms because revenue from block rewards will be cut in half. Miners must either offset the loss with higher bitcoin prices, improve operational efficiency, or reduce costs—especially electricity, which is the largest ongoing expense.

“Even if there’s a slight increase in bitcoin price, [halving] can really impact a miner’s ability to pay bills,” said Andrew W. Balthazor, a Miami-based attorney who specializes in digital assets at Holland & Knight. “You can’t assume that bitcoin is just going to go to the moon. As your business model, you have to plan for extreme volatility.”

Well-capitalized and efficiency-focused miners may have prepared by upgrading hardware, negotiating cheaper power, or raising capital. Less-efficient operators could struggle, accelerating industry consolidation—a trend that intensified after the crypto market crash in 2022. Bitwise’s research shows miner revenue dipped in the month after each previous halving but rebounded over the next year as bitcoin prices rose and larger miners expanded.

Bitcoin’s footprint: What about the environment?

Measuring the halving’s direct environmental impact is difficult, but bitcoin mining’s energy use and carbon footprint continue to attract scrutiny. A study cited by the United Nations University and the journal Earth’s Future estimated that bitcoin mining’s 2020–2021 emissions across 76 countries were comparable to burning 84 billion pounds of coal or running 190 natural-gas power plants. In that period, coal supplied about 45% of mining electricity, natural gas 21% and hydropower 16%.

Environmental effects depend largely on the energy mix miners use. Industry observers note a growing shift toward cleaner energy sources in recent years, driven in part by regulatory pressure and corporate commitments. Still, if production pressures rise after a halving, some miners might seek lower-cost power that is less climate-friendly. JPMorgan has warned that certain firms may relocate to regions with cheaper energy and deploy less efficient equipment, which could worsen emissions.