GTA Housing Market: Sales Rise, Prices Fall

Toronto-area home sales climbed in September even as prices continued to edge lower, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB). The board reported 5,592 transactions for the month, an 8.5% increase compared with the same month last year and a 2% rise on a seasonally adjusted basis from August. Despite stronger activity, the average selling price fell 4.7% year-over-year to $1,059,377, while the composite benchmark price declined 5.5% in September. Month-over-month, the average sale price was essentially flat, ticking up just 0.2% from August.

TRREB president Elechia Barry-Sproule said the Bank of Canada’s September interest rate cut helped rekindle buyer interest. “The Bank of Canada’s September interest rate cut was welcome news for homebuyers,” Barry-Sproule said. “With lower borrowing costs, more households are now able to afford monthly mortgage payments on a home that meets their needs.” The central bank lowered its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point to 2.5% on Sept. 17, ending a run of three consecutive holds earlier in the year.

GTA home sales show early rebound

Local real estate agents and industry observers say the market is beginning to settle into a “new normal.” Cailey Heaps, president of the Heaps Estrin Real Estate Team in Toronto, noted that while activity has not returned to the peak levels seen during the pandemic, buyer sentiment is improving: “We’re likely near the bottom or climbing out of the bottom, so it feels like opportunistically a good time to enter the market. I think there’s sort of this buyer mindset of, ‘It’s OK to buy again.’”

New listings in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) totaled 19,260 in September, up 3.9% from the same month a year earlier and down 3.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis from August. Active listings rose 18.9% year-over-year, with 29,394 properties on the market, providing buyers with more choices than in recent periods.

Within the City of Toronto proper, there were 2,063 sales in September, a 13.2% increase from the previous year. Outside the city but within the broader GTA, sales rose 5.9% to 3,529. All major property categories recorded year-over-year gains: semi-detached homes led the way with an 11% increase in transactions, detached houses saw a 9.6% lift, condos recorded a 7.2% rise, and townhouses were 4.4% higher than in the same month last year.

Lower rates may spur buyer activity

TRREB’s chief information officer Jason Mercer warned that sales still remain below historical norms relative to the region’s number of households, but he suggested that further rate relief could accelerate activity. “Two more 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada would see monthly mortgage payments move more in line with homebuyers’ average incomes, further spurring home sales and related economic activity,” Mercer said, pointing to the link between borrowing costs and purchasing power.

Industry professionals say a combination of factors will determine how quickly the market strengthens. Heaps cautioned that a full return to peak market conditions will take time, but added that additional rate cuts would likely bring more buyers back to the market. As more buyers commit, inventory is expected to tighten naturally, which could help stabilize or even push prices higher down the road. “From a broader perspective, people just need to get comfortable that the Canadian economy is heading in the right direction,” she said, emphasizing the role of consumer confidence in the recovery.

For now, the GTA market is displaying a mixed picture: rising sales and greater choice for buyers, alongside modest declines in average prices compared with a year earlier. Lower interest rates have eased monthly payment pressures and encouraged some households to act, while the balance between supply and demand will determine how quickly the market moves from recovery to sustained growth.

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