Are Bitcoin and Crypto Poised for a Year-End Rally?

Welcome to the Canadian Crypto Observer. Financial journalist and author Aditya Nain provides context on market-moving headlines to help Canadian investors navigate the cryptocurrency landscape.

August and September have been challenging months for crypto investors, but periodic pullbacks can be healthy for markets. Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, fell roughly 6.5% in August and has recovered only about 3.14% of that loss so far in September.

A glance at the BTC price chart below shows that since May 2025, Bitcoin’s price has consolidated around the $110,000 level (all figures in US dollars unless otherwise noted), fluctuating within roughly a 10% range. This sideways action suggests a period of indecision in the market: neither bulls nor bears are clearly in control right now.

Bitcoin price chart

Source: Google Finance as of Sept. 25, 2025

August and September are historically softer months for Bitcoin

Periods of muted trading or declines are not unusual in crypto markets. Historical data going back to 2013 show a tendency for August and September to be weaker months for BTC. Since 2013, August has closed negative nine times (including 2025), while September had been negative eight times through 2024. Over the long run, August’s average return sits near 1.12%, while September’s average return is about −3.24%.

By contrast, historically strong months for Bitcoin include October and November, which have delivered the largest average gains—October averaging around 21.89% and November averaging roughly 46.02% in the recorded period.

These seasonal trends are informative, but they’re not predictive on their own. For investors who remain bullish on BTC, Ethereum (ETH) and other digital assets, maintaining exposure—especially through historically stronger months like October and November—has often been a sensible approach rather than trying to time short-term noise in August and September.

Bitcoin monthly returns table

Source: Coinglass as of Sept. 25, 2025

Is altcoin season underway?

“Altcoin season” describes a period when alternative cryptocurrencies outperform Bitcoin in relative gains. This phase often occurs toward the latter stages of a bull cycle, which appears consistent with market behavior in the second half of 2025.

According to the CMC Altcoin Season Index, which compares altcoin performance to Bitcoin over a 90-day window and scores between 0 and 100, a reading above 70 signals clear altcoin outperformance. Recent index readings indicate that altcoins have been outperforming BTC, suggesting we are currently in an altcoin season.

Altcoin season index chart

Source: CoinMarketCap as of Sept. 25, 2025

The race for altcoin ETFs is heating up

In the United States, product development around altcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is accelerating. While Canadian investors already have access to multiple multi-crypto ETFs, the U.S. market appears primed for a wave of new altcoin ETF launches.

On Sept. 25, 2025, one provider announced an expansion of its U.S. crypto ETF to include XRP, SOL and Stellar (XLM), creating one of the first multi-asset crypto ETFs in the U.S. This move reflects growing institutional interest and a broader product slate that goes beyond Bitcoin-only offerings.

Regulatory developments have helped speed up ETF listings. Recent updates from U.S. regulators streamlined certain listing processes, reducing typical listing timelines from many months to a matter of weeks, which should facilitate faster rollouts of spot crypto ETFs for Ethereum and other altcoins.

Canadian investors looking for diversified crypto exposure through ETFs can consider multi-crypto funds listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Two examples trading on the TSX are presented below for comparison.

ETF name Ticker symbol Exchange Currency options Portfolio Net assets MER
Evolve Cryptocurrencies ETF ETC Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) CAD and USD BTC (74.1%), ETH (14.6%), XRP (7%), SOL (4.2%) $84.31 million (CAD) MERs of underlying funds applicable*
CI Galaxy Multi-Crypto Navigator ETF CMCX Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) CAD and USD ETH (35.6%), SOL (23.5%), BTC (10.5%), Cash and equivalents (30.3%) $5.54 million (CAD) 1.04%
*ETC holds four underlying ETFs. Although ETC itself lists a 0.0% management fee, the underlying funds carry management fees and other expenses. As of September 2025, three underlying ETFs had a MER of 0.75%, and the fourth had a temporary 0.0% MER through Dec. 31, 2025, after which it is scheduled to increase to 1.0%. Data gathered from ETF issuers as of Sept. 25, 2025.

Remember: crypto price swings are normal

Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, SOL, XLM and many other digital assets remain speculative and highly volatile. Even stablecoins, which are designed to maintain a steady value, carry risks if their backing or reserve practices are unclear.

Investing in cryptocurrencies involves market, technological and regulatory risks. Only invest in digital assets if they align with your overall financial plan, time horizon and risk tolerance. Maintain strong security habits and be vigilant against scams and fraud in the crypto ecosystem.

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