Canadian National Railway Co. (CN) reported a slight rise in profit for its second quarter compared with the same period last year, but said ongoing trade uncertainty has made it difficult to provide a reliable financial outlook. The Montreal-based rail operator announced on Tuesday that it is withdrawing its previously issued 2024–26 financial guidance because of continued uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade policy.
“We are indeed in uncertain times and while we can’t predict exactly where tariffs and trade and the economy will go, we are very intensely focused on doing the things that we can do both with our customers and in controlling our costs to make sure that we protect our margins and are well positioned to execute our growth strategy as we go forward,” Tracy Robinson, CN’s president and CEO, told analysts on the company’s conference call.
CN trims outlook for cargo volumes, profit growth, and spending
Interim Chief Commercial Officer Janet Drysdale said the repeatedly changing tariff environment has prompted customers to reassess supply chains, which is weighing on demand. “Based on what we saw in Q2 and what we’re hearing from customers, we have reduced our volume outlook for the back half of the year, and consequently updated our full year volume assumption to low single-digit RTM (revenue ton miles) growth versus 2024,” she said.
Revenue ton miles (RTM) — a key industry metric that measures how many tons of freight are carried multiplied by the distance transported — fell by 1% in the quarter compared with the prior year. That decline underscores the sensitivity of rail volumes to shifts in international trade and tariff policy.
CN also revised its 2025 forecast for adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS), narrowing its expected growth to the mid- to high single-digit range. That is a reduction from the company’s earlier target of 10%–15% EPS growth for 2025. “With a revised volume assumption and corresponding mixed impact, as well as a higher Canadian dollar assumption for the balance of year, we are revising our guidance to mid to high single-digit EPS growth in 2025,” Ghislain Houle, CN’s chief financial officer, said on the earnings call.
Houle added that the company is evaluating a modest reduction in capital expenditures for the year. “Tariff policies have had a meaningful impact on traffic volumes and mix. We are staying close to our customers and continue to manage our costs and resources tightly,” he said, indicating CN’s focus on cost control and operational discipline as the company navigates the uncertain trade environment.
Revenue slips but earnings rise in CN’s second quarter
For the quarter, CN’s net income edged up to $1.17 billion, while revenue declined about 1% to $4.27 billion from $4.33 billion a year earlier. Diluted EPS for the period rose to $1.87, up from $1.75 in the prior-year quarter. The company also declared a third-quarter dividend of 88.75 cents per common share, payable on Sept. 29.
Changes to CN’s 2025 outlook follow the company’s decision in May to stand by its financial forecast when it released first-quarter results. At that time, other firms in the sector had begun trimming their projections; among them was rival Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd., which also adjusted expectations amid shifting market conditions.
CN’s decision to retract its longer-term guidance reflects the broader challenges facing transportation and logistics companies as they contend with fluctuating trade policies, currency movements, and customer adjustments to supply chains. The company’s emphasis in the near term is on close customer engagement, careful cost management, and flexibility in capital deployment to preserve margins and position itself for growth once market conditions stabilize.
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