Market Outlook: What to Watch the Week of June 9, 2024

Kyle Prevost, creator of 4 Steps to a Worry-Free Retirement, Canada’s DIY retirement planning course, summarizes recent financial headlines and provides context for Canadian investors.

“The Big Cut”

The Bank of Canada (BoC) cut its key interest rate to 4.75% on Wednesday — the first reduction since March 2020. For millions of Canadians, this move will be consequential: roughly $700 billion in mortgages are up for renewal this year, meaning this single decision will reverberate across many household budgets.

“We’ve come a long way in the fight against inflation. And our confidence that inflation will continue to move closer to the 2% target has increased over recent months.”

– BoC Governor Tiff Macklem

Governor Tiff Macklem stressed the BoC’s cautious stance: decisions will be taken “one meeting at a time.” He warned that while policy should not be more restrictive than necessary to return inflation to the 2% target, cutting rates too quickly could jeopardize the progress already made. In short: the BoC wants to ease monetary conditions without risking a resurgence of inflation.

Other major central banks are also loosening policy. The European Central Bank followed with its own rate cut, and market commentators expect more reductions ahead. Analysts are speculating the BoC could cut several more times over the rest of the year, though the bank’s measured language suggests it will proceed carefully.

If central banks succeed in gradually cutting rates while sustaining economic growth and keeping inflation under control, economists would likely call that a “soft landing.” That outcome would relieve pressure on borrowers, help economic momentum and avoid a return to sharply higher rates.


Lululemon stops its share price slide, Nvidia skips past Apple

Corporate earnings were relatively quiet this week, but a few retail and tech names grabbed attention. Lululemon and The North West Company released quarterly results, while Nvidia continued its meteoric rise in market value.

Retail earnings highlights

Key figures from the most recent quarter for Lululemon and The North West Company.

  • Lululemon (LULU/NASDAQ): EPS of USD 2.54 versus USD 2.40 expected; revenue USD 2.21 billion versus USD 2.20 billion estimated.
  • The North West Company (NWC/TSX): EPS CAD 0.61 versus CAD 0.58 expected; revenue CAD 617.5 million versus CAD 626.3 million forecast.

Lululemon’s results were well received and its shares jumped about 8% on the day, a welcome rebound after a year-to-date decline. The North West Company reported results largely in line with expectations, leaving its shares mostly unchanged. Note: Lululemon reports in U.S. dollars while The North West Company reports in Canadian dollars.

On the tech front, Nvidia’s market value has surged past the USD 3 trillion mark and overtaken Apple’s market capitalization, with the company approaching Microsoft as the world’s largest by market cap. Nvidia also executed a 10-for-1 stock split, which has added to the stock’s high-profile momentum. While Nvidia stands out as a market leader in chip design and AI accelerators, the intensity of buying suggests investor enthusiasm may be getting ahead of fundamentals. As competition in semiconductors accelerates, profit margins could face pressure over time.

For readers interested in deeper coverage of retail stocks and company-specific analysis, look for expanded commentary on Lululemon’s quarterly report and broader market themes in specialist columns.


Aramco versus the rest of the oil world

Saudi Aramco stands apart in the global energy landscape. It is the only fossil-fuel company among the handful of public corporations with valuations around or above one trillion U.S. dollars. Aramco’s valuation sits roughly in line with the largest tech giants and remains larger than the combined market caps of many major oil producers.

Saudi Aramco comparison
Graphic comparing Aramco’s valuation to rivals

Aramco also controls massive proven reserves — far larger than many international peers — and its 2019 IPO remains the largest in history. That scale gives the company a unique position, but it does not make it immune to market or geopolitical risks. OPEC+ has extended production cuts into 2025 to support prices amid shifting global demand, while U.S. production growth continues to complicate the supply picture.

Recently, Brent crude has traded lower than earlier in the year, hovering around USD 77 per barrel. Saudi fiscal planning depends heavily on oil revenues; the IMF estimates a breakeven oil price near USD 81 per barrel for the current government budget. Meanwhile, agencies have trimmed global demand forecasts amid weaker consumption in parts of Europe and Asia.

For investors considering exposure to Saudi markets or global energy securities, ETFs and region-specific funds have offered access to Saudi equities and related energy themes. As always, weigh the upside of scale and cash flow against political, regulatory and commodity-price volatility.


If a high-interest savings account and a GIC had a child

EQ Bank launched a novel product this week: the EQ Notice Savings Account. It blends the flexibility of a savings account with the time commitment of a short-term guaranteed investment certificate (GIC). Customers who select a 10-day notice period earn 4.5% interest; those who commit to a 30-day notice period receive 5.0%. The idea is simple: you choose the notice period when you deposit funds and agree not to withdraw before that period ends.

Notice accounts are not entirely new in Canada—some institutions already offer variants with 31- or 93-day notice periods—but the EQ product stands out for its short terms and competitive rates. Similar notice-style accounts are more common in markets such as the U.K. and Japan.

EQ Bank emphasizes no fees, no minimum balance and a fully digital onboarding experience. Currently, the EQ Notice Savings Account is not available inside tax-advantaged registered accounts such as RRSPs, TFSAs, RESPs or FHSAs.

For savers seeking higher rates without locking money into long-term GICs, notice accounts can offer a useful middle ground. As always, compare terms, access rules and tax treatment before moving funds.


Further reading about investing

  • Best ETFs for Canadian investors
  • What the Bank of Canada’s first rate cut in four years means for your finances
  • How much is capital gains tax in Canada and other common questions
  • Will the AI “gold rush” last?